Wilson and Sidorenkov – A Luni-Solar Connection to Weather and Climate III: Sub-Centennial Time Scales

Posted: September 28, 2019 by oldbrew in Cycles, moon, Natural Variation, research, solar system dynamics, Temperature
Tags: , ,


Thanks to Ian Wilson for introducing us to his new paper, which is part three of the planned four-part series. The paper can be downloaded from The General Science Journal here. Abstract below.

Abstract

The best way to study the changes in the climate “forcings” that impact the Earth’s mean atmospheric temperature is to look at the first difference of the time series of the world-mean temperature, rather than the time series itself.

Therefore, if the Perigean New/Full Moon cycles were to act as a forcing upon the Earth’s atmospheric temperature, you would expect to see the natural periodicities of this tidal forcing clearly imprinted upon the time rate of change of the world’s mean temperature.

Using both the adopted mean orbital periods of the Moon, as well as calculated algorithms based upon published ephemerides, this paper shows that the Perigean New/Full moon tidal cycles exhibit two dominant periodicities on decadal time scales.

The first is 10.1469 years, which is half of the 20.2937-year Perigean New/Full moon cycle. This represents the time required for the resynchronization of the phases of the Moon with the epochs when the perigee of the lunar orbit points directly towards or directly away from the Sun.

The second is 9.0554 years, which closely matches the 9.0713-year Lunar Tidal Cycle (LTC). This is the harmonic mean of the prograde 8.8475-year Lunar Anomalistic Cycle (LAC) and half of the retrograde 18.6134-year Lunar Nodal Cycle (LNC).

Hence, if the Perigean New/Full moon tidal cycle were to act as a “forcing” on the world’s mean temperatures, you would expect to see periodicities in the first difference of the world’s mean temperature anomaly (WMTA) data that were a simple sinusoidal superposition of the two dominant periods associated with the Equinox(/Solstice) spring tidal cycles (i.e. 9.1 and 10.1469 tropical years).

This paper makes a comparison between two times series that describe these phenomena. The first time series represents the lunar tidal forcing (LTF) curve. This curve is a superposition of a sine wave of amplitude 1.0 unit and period 9.1 tropical years, with a sine wave of amplitude 2.0 units and a period 10.1469 (= 9 FMC’s) tropical years, that is specifically aligned to match the phase of the Perigean New/Full moon cycle.

The second time series represents the difference curve for the HadCRUT4 monthly (Land + Sea) world mean temperature anomaly (DSTA), from 1850 to 2017.

A comparison between the LTF and DSTA curves shows that that the timing of the peaks in the LTF curve closely match those seen in the DSTA curve for two 45-year periods. The first going from 1865 to 1910 and the second from 1955 to 2000. During these two epochs, the aligned peaks of the LTF and the DSTA curves are separated from adjacent peaks by roughly the 9.6 years, which is close to the mean of 9.1 and 10.1469 years.

In addition, the comparison shows that there is a 45-year period separating the first two epochs (i.e. from 1910 to 1955), and a period after the year 2000, where the close match between the timing of the peaks in LTF and DSTA curves breaks down, with the DSTA peaks becoming separated from their neighbouring peaks by approximately 20 years.

Hence, the variations in the rate of change of the smoothed HadCRUT4 temperature anomalies closely follow a “forcing” curve that is formed by the simple sum of two sinusoids, one with a 9.1-year period which matches that of the lunar tidal cycle, and the other with a period of 10.1469-years that matches that of half the Perigean New/Full moon cycle.

This is precisely what you would expect if the natural periodicities associated with the Perigean New/Full moon tidal cycles were driving the observed variations in the world mean temperature (about the long-term linear trend) on decadal time scales.
– – –
Ian Wilson writes:
‘In summary, what Paper-III is saying, is that over the last 150 years, many of the main warming and cooling events in the Earth’s atmosphere (about the long-term linear trend) can be explained by forcings of the Perigean New/Full Tidal cycle because of their influence on El Niño/La Niña events.’

Comments
  1. Ian Wilson says:

    modified to get around known bug

    oldbrew and Rog,

    Thank you for presenting the third in our series of four papers on the influence of the Perigean New/Full Moon cycle up the Earth’s climate.

    Here are the other two papers in the series and their abstracts:

    Ian Robert George Wilson* and Nikolay S Sidorenkov, A Luni-Solar Connection to Weather and Climate I: Centennial Times Scales, J Earth Sci Clim Change 2018, 9:2

    https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/a-lunisolar-connection-to-weather-and-climate-i-centennial-times-scales-2157-7617-1000446.pdf

    Abstract:

    Lunar ephemeris data is used to find the times when the Perigee of the lunar orbit points directly toward or away from the Sun, at times when the Earth is located at one of its solstices or equinoxes, for the period from 1993 to 2528 A.D. The precision of these lunar alignments is expressed in the form of a lunar alignment index (ϕ). When a plot is made of ϕ, in a frame-of-reference that is fixed with respect to the Perihelion of the Earth’s orbit, distinct periodicities are seen at 28.75, 31.0, 88.5 (Gleissberg Cycle), 148.25, and 208.0 years (de Vries Cycle). The full significance of the 208.0-year repetition pattern in ϕ only becomes apparent when these periodicities are compared to those observed in the spectra for two proxy time series. The first is the amplitude spectrum of the maximum daytime temperatures (Tm) on the Southern Colorado Plateau for the period from 266 BC to 1997 AD. The second is the Fourier spectrum of the solar modulation potential (ϕm) over the last 9400 years. A comparison between these three spectra shows that of the nine most prominent periods seen in ϕ, eight have matching peaks in the spectrum of ϕm, and seven have matching peaks in the spectrum of Tm. This strongly supports the contention that all three of these phenomena are related to one another. A heuristic Luni-Solar climate model is developed in order to explain the connections between ϕ, Tm and ϕm.

    Wilson I.R.G, and Sidorenkov, N.S., 2019, A Luni-Solar Connection to Weather and Climate II: Extreme Perigean New/Full Moons and El Niño Events, The General Science Journal

    https://www.gsjournal.net/Science-Journals/Research%20Papers/View/7637

    Abstract

    Paper-I showed that the epochs when the lunar line-of-apse points directly towards/away
    from the Sun, at times that were closely aligned with the Equinoxes and Solstices (i.e.
    seasonal boundaries), exhibited distinct periodicities at 28.75, 31.00, 88.50 (Gleissberg
    cycle), 148.25, and 208.00 (de Vries cycle) years. The caveat being that the alignments had to
    observed in a frame of reference that was fixed with respect to the Perihelion of the Earth’s
    orbit.
    This study expands upon the findings of paper I by showing that the long-term
    periodicities exhibited by the alignments of the lunar line-of apse with the seasonal
    boundaries have effectively the same periodicities as the alignments of the Perigean New/Full
    moons with the seasonal boundaries (provided both are viewed in a frame of reference that
    was fixed with respect to the Perihelion of the Earth’s orbit).
    In addition, this study establishes that the very process of selecting the times when the
    Perigean New/Full moons occur at or near seasonal boundaries, is, in fact, equivalent to
    selecting the times when the strongest Perigean New/Full moon tidal events cross the Earth’s
    equator or when they are at their furthest distance from the Earth’s equator (i.e. lunar
    standstill).

    The strongest spring tidal events that occur close to either the nominal Vernal Equinox
    (i.e. 0.00 UT March 21st) or the nominal Autumnal Equinox (i.e. 0.00 UT September 21st)
    that have peak tides at latitudes that are close to the Earth’s equator are selected. Similarly,
    the strongest spring tidal events that occur close to either the nominal Summer Solstice (i.e.
    0.00 UT June 21st) or the nominal Winter Solstice (i.e. 0.00 UT December 21st) that have
    peak tides at latitudes that are close to those of the lunar standstills are selected, as well.
    Collectively, the selected sample shows that the tidal events closest to the Vernal Equinox
    naturally divides into five 31-year epochs that start in the years 1870, 1901, 1932, 1963, and
    1994. The three lunar tidal epochs that start in 1870, 1932, and 1994 begin with a Perigean
    Full moon, so they are designated as Full Moon epochs. Similarly, the remaining two epochs
    that start in 1901 and 1963 begin with a Perigean New moon, so they are designated as New
    Moon epochs. In addition, the selected sample shows that the actual starting date for each of
    the 31-year epochs is dependent upon the specific seasonal boundary that is chosen. The net
    effect of this is a gradual transition between one lunar epoch and the next that spans a 9.0-
    year period which is centred upon the time when the strongest spring tide is most closely
    aligned with the Spring Equinox.
    It turns out that the times when strongest tidal peaks cross the Earth’s equator [i.e. the
    Equinox spring tides, which are the strongest spring tidal events that are nearest to the times
    of the nominal Equinoxes] or the times when the strongest peaks reach their greatest
    distances from the Equator [i.e. the Solstice spring tides, which are the strongest spring tidal
    events that are nearest to the times of the nominal Solstices], correspond to the times when
    the lunar-induced rotational acceleration of the Earth changes sign. This leads to the question,
    can the tidally induced changes in the sign of the Earth’s rotational acceleration be linked to an
    atmospheric/oceanic phenomenon that is known to influence changes in the Earth’s global
    mean temperature? Further investigation shows that the meteorological phenomenon that
    meets these requirements is the starting dates of moderate to strong El Nino events.

    Finally, here is Paper-III with a brief outline of its connections to the previous paper in the series.

    Luni-Solar Connection to Weather and Climate III: Sub-Centennial Time Scales

    Paper-II shows that selecting the times when the lunar line-of-apse points directly towards or away from the Sun, at times that are very close to Equinoxes (/Solstices), is equivalent to selecting the times when strongest spring tidal peaks are crossing (/furthest from) the Earth’s equator. These are called the Equinox (/Solstice) spring tides since they are the strongest spring tidal events that take place nearest to the dates of the nominal Equinoxes (/Solstices).

    In addition, Paper-II establishes that the Equinox (/Solstice) spring tides are a good candidate for investigating the connection between the centennial-scale luni-solar seasonal alignment cycles discussed in Paper-I, and the lunar tidal cycle forcing on the world’s mean temperature, at decadal to sub-decadal time scales.
    Finally, Paper-II concludes that there must be a connection between the occurrences of strongest Equinox/Solstice spring tidal events and the onset of El Niño events.

    Wilson (2013), Tisdale (2012), and de Freitas and McLean (2013) show that whenever the relative strength and/or frequency of the El Niño events are greater than that of the La Niña events then global mean temperatures increase, and that whenever the relative strength and/or frequency of the La Niña events are greater than that of the El Niño events then global mean temperature decreases.
    Hence, the conclusion of paper II about the onset of El Niño events, combined with the conclusions of Wilson (2013), Tisdale (2012), and de Freitas and McLean (2013) about the role that the ENSO plays in heating and cooling the Earth’s atmosphere, supports a prima facie case that there is some factor that links the Equinox/Solstice spring tidal events with the times when the world’s mean temperature either increases or decreases.

  2. Ian Wilson says:

    oldbrew and Rog,

    In summary, what Paper-III is saying, is that over the last 150 years, many of the main warming and cooling events in the Earth’s atmosphere (about the long-term linear trend) can be explained by forcings of the Perigean New/Full Tidal cycle because of their influence El/Nino/La Nina events.

  3. Pablo says:

    Brilliant.

    Slightly off-topic, but still relevant to ocean/atmospheric dynamics, stumbled upon this concerning
    major climatic shifts in the distant past due to changes in oceanic deep water.

    https://www.nap.edu/read/11798/chapter/9

  4. erl happ says:

    The Great Climate shift of 1978 ( also termed the Great Pacific Climate Shift) manifests in sea surface temperature data for the tropics and the also the temperature of the southern hemisphere stratosphere. Is there a connection with lunar tides?

  5. Ian Wilson says:

    Earl,

    The 31-year Perigean New/Full Moon cycle at the end of the last century went from 1963 to 1994 The halfway point between these two transition years is 1978.5. If the Perigean New/Full moon cycle plays a role in the Great Pacific Climate Shift then next one might be:

    mid-2025 to 2056 period = 2040.5

    This is just a bit of speculation at this stage.

    (There is a mid-1994 to 2025 = 2009.5 point, as well. Was there any noticeable change in the Pacific ocean in that year?)

  6. erl happ says:

    Ian, Thanks for your quick reply. I had a close look at the data.

    There is a conjunction between the occurrence of high sea surface temperatures in the zone 10N to 10S latitude between 180 degrees of longitude and South America AND the end of an interval of episodically increasing sea surface pressures at 50-70 degrees of latitude in for the same intervals of longitude. Simply speaking this represents an episodic weakening in the north westerly winds of the southern hemisphere that drive the cold waters of the Southern Ocean northwards up the coast of South America.

    Surface pressure at 50-70 degrees south has been in long term decline since the 1940’s. So the north westerly winds have been increasing in velocity since that time. Parts of the Pacific have cooled continuously over that period, but not the equatorial waters.

    The warming that has been experienced occurs in the main in both hemispheres in high latitudes in winter. It’s very likely due to a loss of cloud cover in the mid latitudes, especially in the southern hemisphere where atmospheric surface pressure has increased systematically. This produces bigger high-pressure cells, largely cloud free in the latitude 15-40 degrees south and their dominance extends further southwards. So, less rainfall of frontal origin on the west coasts of southern continents.

    Re the Pacific climate shift: There were a couple of weak episodes of warming of the Pacific Equatorial waters in close conjunction in the late 1970’s. This coincides with a period when, for several winters in succession Antarctic extra-tropical cyclones (polar cyclones) failed to intensify to the usual degree and surface pressure did not fall to the extent normally seen in winter. So, for the best part of a decade the pressure driving cold currents northwards relaxed. The Pacific experienced a bout of continuous warming from 1974 to 1984.

    In conclusion, let me opine that what is happening in the Pacific is a result of mixing processes between high and low latitudes. The real action is elsewhere and it’s to do with cloud cover. If we focus simply on the Pacific equatorial waters, it’s not going to be very productive. There are local factors at work. Traditionally we focus on the strength of the trade winds. Yes, the trades are locally important in carrying cooler waters westward to New Guinea, but the supply of really cold water comes from the Westerlies. When mid latitude surface pressure driving the trades falls away, the surface pressure driving the North Westerlies also falls away. But it’s the relative intensity of polar cyclones that drives mid latitude surface pressure. When Antarctic polar cyclones intensify there is a shift of atmospheric mass to the mid latitudes of the southern hemisphere and the rest of the globe.

    Antarctic trough surface pressure has been very low and falling over the last three years. Episodically, Antarctic air is finding its way northwards to cool the west coast of WA. So, cold winters and short summers here while South Australia and the East coast has been unusually warm and dry. One can’t generalize based on local experience, either here or in the Tropical Pacific.

  7. Wilson says:

    Modified to get around known bug,

    Erl Happ,

    Thank you for outlining some of the most important factors in the mid-to-high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere that are likely to have an impact on the strength of the Tropical Trade Winds.
    I am sure that your summary of the long-term trends is based upon years of experience and detailed observation. I greatly appreciate the depth of knowledge that you bring to the debate. Please forgive me if I say something that is obvious to someone like yourself who has a detailed and nuanced grasp of the underlying processes involved, I do so with the greatest respect

    You say:

    “In conclusion, let me opine that what is happening in the Pacific is a result of mixing processes between high and low latitudes. The real action is elsewhere and it’s to do with cloud cover. If we focus simply on the Pacific equatorial waters, it’s not going to be very productive.”

    I agree with you that what is happening in the equatorial and tropical Pacific ocean is intrinsically linked to mixing processes between high and low latitudes. However, there are a number of things that lead me to believe that your last two sentences are not 100 % correct.

    1) Half the mass of the atmosphere and oceans is found between +/- 30 degrees of latitude. This means that the Tropics is the gorilla in the room when it comes to pushing its weight around.

    2) What happens in the mid-to-high latitudes and in the Tropics will depend on mixing processes between these two spheres. However, to dismiss the Tropics as an afterthought is, I think, fundamentally wrong.

    3) It is important to realize that there are multiple forcing factors in the atmosphere and oceans of both the Tropics and the mid-to-high latitudes. All these forcing factors operate over different times scales. This makes it difficult to determine how they interact.

    4) My first two papers strongly indicate that something related to the 31/62/93/186-year Perigean New/Full Moon cycle is influencing the rate at which the Earth warms and cools. Paper-II, in particular, claims that the onset of El Nino events is driven by the Perigean lunar cycle.

    5) I have published some earlier papers which show that the Perigean (31/62-year) and Draconian (18.6-year) lunar tidal cycles influence the temporal evolution Summer-time (DJF) high- and low-pressure systems in the mid-to-high latitudes (30 – 50 degrees S) of the Southern Hemisphere.

    6) Hence, I am aware that a full picture of what happens in the tropics can only be obtained if consideration is given to what is happening at the higher latitudes.

    7) The series of four papers by Nikolay Sidorenkov and myself are meant to highlight the fact that:

    i) The relative strength and frequency of El Nino to La Nina events play a crucial role in heating and cooling the Earth. It does so by controlling the rate of redistribution of energy from the tropical oceans to higher latitudes.

    ii) The Perigean New/ Moon cycle plays an important role in governing the relative strength and frequency of El Nino events. There is evidence that It may also affect the strength of winds in the Tropical Jet stream, mid-latitude atmospheric Rosby waves, as well as regional cloud coverage at mid-to-high latitudes.

    iiI) The relative strength and frequency of El Nino to La Nina events (and hence the rate of cooling and heating of the Earth on decadal time scales) also requires some knowledge of the factors that lead to La Nina events.

    iv) Our papers have never claimed that the relative strength and frequency of La Nina events are controlled by the Perigean New/Ful Moon cycle. It might play a minor role but, clearly, there are other factors that play a dominant role e.g. Solar magnetic activity etc.

    I could go on but I have run out of time.

  8. Pablo says:

    Re. solar magnetic activity etc.

    This video from SuspiciousObservers on Earth’s global electric circuit and its response to space weather is well worth watching.

  9. pochas94 says:

    I became convinced of the importance of tidal effects by reading Keeling and Whorf,
    “Possible forcing of global temperature by the oceanic tides” (1997)
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC33744/

    This paper adds tremendous definition to the subject. Thanks to the authors Ian and Nikolay.

  10. oldbrew says:

    Keeling and Whorf say:
    Also, tidal events, as strong or nearly as strong, evidently occurred in 1247 and 1433 (11), thus forming, with the events in 1610 and 1787, a series with a repeat period of approximately 180 years.

    De Rop showed the reason for the 1433 event in his paper, discussed here:
    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2016/01/05/de-rops-long-term-lunar-cycle/

    The opening paragraph states:
    ‘The Swedish oceanographer O. Pettersson
    has presented evidence indicating that the last
    maximum of oceanic tides occurred about 1433.
    He pointed out that there is a coincidence
    between a tidal period of 1800 years and climatic
    changes of the same period. We think we
    can explain this period as follows.’

    Also: ‘only once in about 1 800 years* the line of nodes
    and the line of apsides (the Moon in its perigee)
    coincides with the major axis of the Earth’s
    orbit and the position of the Earth in the
    perihelion. In case of this double coincidence,
    the tidal forces exerted by Sun and Moon will
    reach an absolute maximum. ‘

    [* in fact 1799 anomalistic years]
    – – –
    K&W also say:
    An even longer perspective of strong tidal forcing is gained from a study of the timing of astronomical alignments by Cartwright (43), who showed that the greatest tide raising forces in the past millennium occurred between A.D. 1340 and 1619, at 93-year intervals, when the perigean eclipse cycle was almost optimally timed with respect to perihelion. By his calculation, tides of such great magnitude will not occur again until A.D. 3182

    That would the 93-year interval before 1433, and the first two 93-year intervals after 1433.

  11. oldbrew says:

    W&S 2019: the comparison shows that there is a 45-year period separating the first two epochs (i.e. from 1910 to 1955)

    K&W 1997: we have found that near-decadal variations in global air temperature are characteristic of the past 141 years, except for a roughly 45-year interruption centered near 1920.

    Same 45-year period? Possibly half the 93-year period.

  12. Wilson says:

    modified to get around a known bug

    oldbrew,

    KW deals with cycles in the absolute strength of lunisolar tides. Our research is all about the strongest lunisolar tides that precisely align with the seasons i.e. repeatedly occur at the same time in the seasonal cycle. These are not necessarily the lunisolar tides with the greatest absolute tidal strength.

    We believe that seasonally-aligned peak lunisolar tidal will have a much greater effect upon the climate, much like a parent has a much better chance of getting their child to go higher and higher on a swing, if they time their pushing of the swinging child to match the frequency of the swing.

    There is one key factor that must be taken into account when projecting the effects upon the Earth’s climate of short-term variations in the lunisolar tidal forces to multi-decadal to centennial time scales. If a projection of this nature is made, it must be done in such a way that it takes into account the full effects upon the Earth’s climate, of the precession of the lunar line-of-apse, the precession of the Earth’s rotation axis, and the precession of the perihelion of the Earth’s orbit.

    In effect, this means that the time required for the Earth’s seasons (as expressed by the tilt of the Earth’s rotation axis with respect to the ecliptic) to complete one full cycle of the Earth’s orbit (e.g. to move from Perihelion to Perihelion) is approximately equal to:

    (111,580 x 25,770) / (111,580 + 25,770) = 20,935 years ≈ 21,000 years

    An important consequence of the existence of this 21,000-year climate cycle is that if you want to study the full effects of the long-term alignments between the lunar line-of-apse and the seasons upon climate, it is important that you do so in reference frame that is fixed with respect to the Earth’s orbit (i.e. anomalistic year), rather than one which is fixed with respect to seasons (i.e. tropical year) or the stars (i.e. sidereal year).

    If you correct for the slow drift of the seasons with respect to the perihelion of the Earth’s orbit, you get alignment cycles that are multiples of:

    28.75 = 25.5 FMCs
    (31.00 = 37.5 FMCs)
    85.50 = 78.5 FMCs
    148.25 = 131.5 FMCs
    208.00 = 184.5 FMCs.

    e.g. 1474 years = (7 x 208.0 years) + 18.0 years – which is the DO cycle.

    If you only take into account the effects upon the Earth’s climate of the precession of the lunar-line-of-apse and the precession of the Earth’s rotation axis and you leave out the effects caused by the precession of the perihelion of the Earth’s orbit then the alignments reoccur at multiples of
    59.75 years i.e.

    59.75, 119.5, 179.25, 239.0 years

    e.g. (59.75 x 30 years) + 6.0 years = 1798.5 years

  13. oldbrew says:

    ‘(111,580 x 25,770) / (111,580 + 25,770) = 20,935 years ≈ 21,000 years’

    So approx. 20,935 years is the period where tropical years exceed anomalistic years by 1.

    Here a model version of this has the ratio of these 3 periods as 3:13:16
    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2016/02/01/why-phi-a-unified-precession-model/

    Meaning of course that knowing any one of them can give you the other two, in theory at least – because they are related to each other.

  14. pochas94 says:

    All of this speaks of gravitational effects of the sun/earth/moon system on fluid flows here on earth. Of course the same effects will be felt on the sun, except that the effect of the moon will be diminished and the effects of the other planets will be augmented and the resulting solar activity cycles will be added to the morass.

  15. stpaulchuck says:

    First, a big thanks to all the smart kids out there poring over tons of data and finding these empirical truths about influences on Earth’s oceans and climate.

    My first intro to the concepts was Scafetta, ‘Testing An Astronomically Based Decadal-Scale Empirical Harmonic Climate Model vs. The IPCC (2007) General Circulation Climate Models’ by Nicola Scafetta, PhD
    http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/reprint/astronomical_harmonics.pdf then Nikolov and Zeller, and now so many more.

    As time goes by, more and more researchers are turning up correlated evidence of various astronomical causes like astronomical alignments causing gravitational influences, cosmic rays, and solar variation. I have never believed my pickup truck and backyard grill were going to “destroy the planet” or anything like that.

    The second, and just as important group I’d like thank are the BS detectives that look over the data and “adjustments” and such data torturing and cherry picking being done by people we’re supposed to trust blindly – NASA, NOAA

    Thanks.

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