Claim: Humanity is compressing millions of years of natural change into just a few centuries

Posted: November 2, 2021 by oldbrew in alarmism, climate, History, IPCC, modelling, Natural Variation, predictions, propaganda, solar system dynamics
Tags: ,

Fine summer weather [image credit: BBC]

How many millions of years might that be then? Two, apparently: CO2 level ‘is greater than at any time in at least the past 2 million years’. What about earlier times? The caption to the first photo in the article reads: ‘The near future may be similar to the mid-Pliocene warm period a few million years ago.’ So natural variation is confined to history, and/or dependent on volcanoes? The article asserts: ‘the last warm period between ice ages peaked about 125,000 years ago—in contrast to today, warmth at that time was driven not by CO₂, but by changes in Earth’s orbit and spin axis.’ Now orbital factors have also switched themselves off? And so it goes on: our climate models say…
– – –
Many numbers are swirling around the climate negotiations at the UN climate summit in Glasgow, COP26, says Phys.org.

These include global warming targets of 1.5℃ and 2.0℃, recent warming of 1.1℃, remaining CO₂ budget of 400 billion tons, or current atmospheric CO₂ of 415 parts per million.

It’s often hard to grasp the significance of these numbers. But the study of ancient climates can give us an appreciation of their scale compared to what has occurred naturally in the past.

Our knowledge of ancient climate change also allows scientists to calibrate their models and therefore improve predictions of what the future may hold.

Recent work, summarized in the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), has allowed scientists to refine their understanding and measurement of past climate changes. These changes are recorded in rocky outcrops, sediments from the ocean floor and lakes, in polar ice sheets, and in other shorter-term archives such as tree rings and corals.

As scientists discover more of these archives and get better at using them, we have become increasingly able to compare recent and future climate change with what has happened in the past, and to provide important context to the numbers involved in climate negotiations.

For instance one headline finding in the IPCC report was that global temperature (currently 1.1℃ above a pre-industrial baseline) is higher than at any time in at least the past 120,000 or so years.

That’s because the last warm period between ice ages peaked about 125,000 years ago—in contrast to today, warmth at that time was driven not by CO₂, but by changes in Earth’s orbit and spin axis.

Another finding regards the rate of current warming, which is faster than at any time in the past 2,000 years—and probably much longer.

Continued here.

Comments
  1. Saighdear says:

    I’m having a bad dream …. who came in on it with this rubbish? Is it as a result of Last Night’s change of diet to Scotland’s best, I wonder?

  2. oldbrew says:

    in contrast to today, warmth at that time was driven not by CO₂

    By the human-caused portion of 100 or so parts per million of carbon dioxide, or 1/10000th of the atmosphere? Such power 🤣

  3. JB says:

    “compare … future climate change with what has happened in the past”

    To claim such extensive knowledge of the past and then infallibly forecast the future as though it has already happened…

    This is not science.

    It is not even good scientism. For that one needs a good beer and numerous guffaws.

    I submit that no one shall nor ever know precisely what was the climate of the past. We cannot decipher the conditions and language of earliest civilization, much less the vicissitudes of earth’s transformation within the larger galactic environment.

  4. oldbrew says:

    Climate derangement syndrome claims another victim…

    Archbishop of Canterbury says sorry after comparing climate inaction to ignoring the Nazis

    Most Rev Justin Welby made the comment as he called for urgent action to tackle global warming at Cop26 summit in Glasgow

    1 November 2021

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/11/01/archbishop-canterbury-says-sorry-comparing-climate-inaction/
    – – –
    What ‘urgent action’ might that be, Rev? Close a few more reliable power stations perhaps?

  5. stpaulchuck says:

    acolytes of the Climate Caliphate at it again. A translation of their dire predictions: “Give us all your money or you will all die in the planetary conflagration.”

  6. oldbrew says:

    How ‘going green’ works…

    Behind the Rise of U.S. Solar Power, a Mountain of Chinese Coal

    But the West faces a conundrum as it installs panels on small rooftops and in sprawling desert arrays: Most of them are produced with energy from carbon-dioxide-belching, coal-burning plants in China.

    https://stockxpo.com/behind-the-rise-of-u-s-solar-power-a-mountain-of-chinese-coal/
    (WSJ article)
    – – –
    But they look ‘clean’ 🙄

  7. iggie says:

    ‘For instance one headline finding in the IPCC report was that global temperature (currently 1.1℃ above a pre-industrial baseline) is higher than at any time in at least the past 120,000 or so years.’
    Holocene Optimum was only 10,000 years ago. Has this period been erased from history?

  8. Gamecock says:

    ‘As scientists discover more of these archives and get better at using them, we have become increasingly able to compare recent and future climate change with what has happened in the past, . . .’

    The future isn’t what it used to be.

    No climate has changed in a hundred years. None.

    ‘and to provide important context to the numbers involved in climate negotiations’

    Wuh? ‘Climate negotiations’ ???

  9. Phoenix44 says:

    I find this stuff so bizarre, like a Alchemists notebook from 600 years ago. There’s so much that is obviously false. The warming they claim is not remotely smooth but almost entirely step-wise. Much of the time there is no warming whatsoever. To correlate that with CO2 is quite strange and almost certainly bogus. And as they point out, small changes in the Earth’s position have caused significant warming in the past but are nowadays completely ignored. They appear to utterly ignore the various Warm Periods as well, simply because they are inconvenient (oh the irony…)

  10. Chaswarnertoo says:

    A natural recovery from an unpleasant Little Ice Age, then?
    Call me when there are hippos in the Thames, like the Neanderthals had.

  11. oldbrew says:

    Climate superstition and pointless sacrifice for you, private jets for them.

  12. “one headline finding in the IPCC report was that global temperature (currently 1.1℃ above a pre-industrial baseline) is higher than at any time in at least the past 120,000 or so years. ” Is total rubbish.

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