The BBC likes to lace articles like this with ‘climate change’ as though it’s a brand, without ever defining it. As usual an obvious case of a natural cycle is infected by some preconceived ideas and assertions of alarmists. But their high hopes and predictions of a lengthy El Niño have faded on this occasion, as potential La Niña conditions start to appear. There’s talk of uncharted territory ahead due to last year’s unexpected ‘heat spike’.
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The powerful El Niño weather event which along with climate change has helped push global temperatures to new highs, has ended, say scientists.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology says the Pacific Ocean has “cooled substantially” in the past week.
This naturally occurring episode that began last June brought warmer waters to the surface of the Pacific, adding extra heat to the atmosphere, says BBC News.
But what happens next is uncertain, say researchers.
A string of recent global monthly high temperature records has led some scientists to fear that the world could be tipping into a new phase of even faster climate change.
Scientists say that the months after the end of El Niño will give a strong indication as to whether the recent high temperatures are due to accelerated climate change or not.
Every few years, the onset of El Niño brings dramatic change to weather in many parts of the world.
The surge of warmer water that comes to the surface off the coast of Peru in South America is linked to increased droughts and floods in different parts of the world.
The full name of the pattern is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation or ENSO.
It’s marked by three different phases, the hot El Niño, neutral conditions or a cooler period called La Niña.
This current El Niño was declared last June, and reached a peak in December.
The resulting warmer water in the Pacific has helped push global average temperatures to new highs, with March making it ten months in a row to break the record for that period.
But now, perhaps quicker than expected, El Niño is gone. [Talkshop comment – climate alarmists disappointed].
The critical question is what happens next and on this scientists are divided.
US researchers recently said there was 60% chance of a La Niña developing between June-August, and an 85% chance of this happening by Autumn.
But the Australian Bureau say such statements should be treated with caution. They expect neutral conditions to last until at least July.
They point to the current hot state of the global oceans which they believe is affecting ENSO.
“As the current global ocean conditions have not been observed before, inferences as to how ENSO may develop in 2024 that are based on past events may not be reliable,” they said in a statement.
Full article here.
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Image credit: NOAA (climate.gov)
Tallbloke's Talkshop 
“Uncharted territory”?
Really?
And here’s me believing the “science” was so settled that we had to return our culture to the Stone Age!
Read all about it…
Climate models can’t explain 2023’s huge heat anomaly — we could be in uncharted territory – March 2024
Taking into account all known factors, the planet warmed 0.2 °C more last year than climate scientists expected. More and better data are urgently needed.
By Gavin Schmidt
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00816-z
Seems BoM is not good at looking at their own and other data. BoM collect the data for the SOI (especially the atmospheric pressure in Darwin) SOI is a major indicator of El Nino and La Nina conditions. The IPO which varies in cycles of around 30 years is a indicator of drier or wetter periods for eastern Australia. The latter has been in neutral state for some years. There was no chance of a super El Nino as predicted by BoM. From SOI data I have said the weak El Nino conditions ended in February. BoM and I suppose other met. organisations are believers in the CO2 nonsense of effect on climate. I suggest the people at the top have no understanding of the engineering subjects of Thermodynamics and Heat transfer.
They admit they have no clue about a global, recurring phenomenon that has a huge effect on climate but won’t admit they don’t have a clue about climate.
[reply] 👍🏽
G. Schmidt (from the Nature article): In general, the 2023 temperature anomaly has come out of the blue, revealing an unprecedented knowledge gap perhaps for the first time since about 40 years ago, when satellite data began offering modellers an unparalleled, real-time view of Earth’s climate system. If the anomaly does not stabilize by August — a reasonable expectation based on previous El Niño events — then the world will be in uncharted territory. [bold added]
Also: The observed temperature anomaly has not only been much larger than expected, but also started showing up several months before the onset of El Niño.
“Scientists say that the months after the end of El Niño will give a strong indication as to whether the recent high temperatures are due to accelerated climate change or not.”
The BBC are not disappointed that El Nino is fading rapidly I suspect. They are eagerly anticipating the prospect of blaming the extraordinary jump in global temperature not on El Nino – which was farcically invoked to explain the sharp increase in GMST beginning June last year, plus the earlier preceding spike in SST in March/May – but on a ‘global warming tipping point’, which Schmidt hints darkly at as “uncharted territory” in his risible Nature commentary.
When exactly was the world/climate in charted territory, and whose chart was it? At no time have climate models been able to align with whatever the present was.
The globe is warming at 1.5 degsC a century so every year should be a record. The shortness and dramatic collapse of this El Niño after a prolonged La Niña is intetesting. How will the alarmists deal with yet another pause’. Perhaps we are due to resume the gross cooling since the Holocene Optimum.
La Niña seems to have had the upper hand in recent years, contrary to alarmist predictions.
Oldbrew – the estimable Willis Eschenbach had a lengthy post on WUWT about six eight months ago where he suggested that Global Warming was having an effect on the ENSO and making La Niñas dominant. One of the NOAA graphs would seem etc etc
Arctic sea ice–air interactions weaken El Niño–Southern Oscillation – 2024
Using model simulations, we show that Arctic sea ice–air interactions weaken ENSO by about 12 to 17%.
. . .
Observed historical changes from 1921–1960 (with strong sea ice–air interactions) to 1971–2000 (with weak interactions) are qualitatively consistent with the model results.
https://www.science.org/doi/abs/10.1126/sciadv.adk3990
What about 2001 onwards? There must be data to work with if they can find it for 1921.
“There must be data to work with if they can find it for 1921″ – Priceless! -there’s ALWAYS Data when they want to find it.