Alan Carlin: Unilateral US Decarbonization Could Have Serious Economic Consequences

Posted: July 1, 2019 by oldbrew in climate, Emissions, Energy, opinion, Temperature
Tags: , , ,


As the energy policies of various countries sink ever further into the realms of fantasy over the imagined role of minor trace gases in the atmosphere, what will the US do – or not do?

The current unilateral US decarbonization proposals by various Democrats promoting the Green New Deal (GND) climate schemes suffer from two particularly crucial assumptions that they have made, says Alan Carlin.

One is the extremely doubtful assumption that CO2 levels determine temperatures as opposed to temperatures determining CO2 levels. The assumption being made is that it is the atmospheric CO2 level that is the critical determinant of temperatures.

If this is wrong, as I believe it is, any dollar spent on decarbonization will provide no benefits in terms of global temperatures.

Another important assumption is that China, India, and other less developed countries (LDCs) will soon stop building coal fired power plants, which they are currently doing at a rapid rate. If they continue to build them rapidly, minor decreases in CO2 emissions from the developed world will not make any significant difference even if CO2 levels determine temperatures.

I see no reason why India, China, and the other LDCs will or even should reduce their CO2 emissions any time in the foreseeable future.

So all that will happen is that the developed world will pay more for electricity using high cost, unreliable “renewable” sources of energy like wind and solar while LDCs will pay less by using much cheaper and more reliable coal plants. So there will be a transfer of wealth and comparative advantage to the LDCs from the developed countries.

In the case of China this would be highly disadvantageous to the US since China is the leading economic competitor to the US. If the US pays more for energy while China pays less, the US will be put at a significant economic disadvantage. But this is exactly what the US Democratic Party currently advocates.

So the proposed emissions of CO2 contained in many of the Democratic proposals for US decarbonization would have a profound adverse effect on the US economy.

Full article here.

  1. oldbrew says:

    If the US pays more for energy while China pays less

    China imports a lot of its oil, coal and gas – the US not so much.

  2. Gamecock says:

    ‘So the proposed emissions of CO2 contained in many of the Democratic proposals for US decarbonization would have a profound adverse effect on the US economy.’

    A feature, not a bug.

  3. stpaulchuck says:

    I’ve never even read of a period in the US history where so many people not just rooted for, but actively engaged in cultural and economic suicide.

  4. oldbrew says:

    More wacky thinking here…

    JULY 1, 2019
    Well-meaning climate measures can make matters worse
    – – –
    People with too much time on their hands trying to solve problems they haven’t got, which will only create problems they haven’t thought of.

  5. tom0mason says:

    Here is a graphic depiction of The fight against carbon pollution.
    Note the two UN official hovering there, studiously taking action …

  6. stpaulchuck says:

    two of my favorite commenters –
    “Much of the social history of the Western world, over the past three decades, has been a history of replacing what worked with what sounded good” – Thomas Sowell
    “Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.” — Groucho Marx

    I give you the Satanic Gases – QED

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