Archive for the ‘Tides’ Category

This is a major new paper published in the March issue of prestigious journal ‘Solar Physics’ by solar-planetary theorists Ken McCracken, Jurg Beer and Friedhelm Steinhilber, which makes a newer and more extensive analysis of planetary motion in relation to the Carbon 14 and Beryllium 10 Glactic cosmic ray proxies than the 2400 yr Hallstat cycle study we looked at yesterday. The paper has been in the works a long time (submitted in July 2012), achieving final acceptance in late February this year. I can’t make the whole paper available due to copyright restrictions, but the abstract gives a clue as to the content. I’ve added one of the figures up to help convey some of the more important results. I’ve also appended the bibliography, as this isn’t part of the paper’s main text, it’s great to see Geoff Sharp and Ian Wilson getting citations. We can discuss other parts of their paper in comments. Boy is Martin Rasmussen going to look stupid in the future, by axing PRP for publishing our solar-planetary special edition.

mbs2014fig8

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Here we have  two fine scientists who have written an excellent and easily readable paper, well supported by the evidence they cite.

2400-year cycle in atmospheric radiocarbon concentration: bispectrum of 14C data over the last 8000 years
S. S. Vasiliev and V. A. Dergachev

Received: 5 September 2000 – Revised: 6 August 2001 – Accepted: 21 August 2001

c14-halstatt

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While giggling about the botched “Death blow” dealt by Anthony Watts and other members of team wassup to our solar-planetary theory yesterday, it occurred to me that the rather thin rolled-up paper they tried to bludgeon Nicola Scafetta with only considered the all too brief thermometer record. No wonder Sverre Holm found his windows too narrow to see the big picture through, as Nicola Scafetta pointed out in a comment deleted by Anthony Watts. When considering climate swings on the timescale of interest, in this case, around 60 years, we need to look at longer records.

A paper we discussed a few days ago used a paleoproxy to compare millennial scale changes in terrestrial climatic indicators with Steinhilber et al’s 2009 10Be proxy reconstruction of TSI (Total Solar Irradiance). Their work is sufficiently detailed to be able to discern sub-centennial swings in these climatic and solar indicators. Here’s panel ‘d’ of their figure 2, which I’ve annotated with vertical lines marking peaks in the curves.

55yr

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H/T to Susan Fraser for this item from the NZ Herald. A nice antidote to the BBC bullshit about the Indonesian islands:

The images show the remarkable changes that have occurred in the Nadikdik Atoll, in the southern Marshall Islands, between 1945 and 2010. (Credit: NZ Herald)

New research has shown the remarkable rebirth of a Pacific atoll devastated by a typhoon over a century ago.

The University of Auckland study, published in the journal Geomorphology, highlights the dynamism of island systems of the Pacific over relatively short periods of time.

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Reblogged from Jaime Jessop’s nascent climatecontrarian site:

Climate Wars – CO2 vs. Solar in the Battle to Lay Claim to Jet Stream Anomalies
By Jaime Jessop – 23-2-2014
Mat Collins of Exeter University admitted to the world a week ago that the direct cause of the UK’s wet and windy winter was/is the North Atlantic Jet Stream. It has been directly responsible for the ‘conveyor belt’ of powerful storms which have hit the UK, one after another, in seemingly endless succession, since December 2013 all the way into February of this year. The rain precipitated by those storms has resulted in widespread river flooding.

In addition, a particularly deep depression which coincided with a very high tide on the 5th/6th December also resulted in fairly severe coastal flooding along eastern coastal areas. Nothing as bad as the devastating tidal surge of 1953 but that was more down to massively improved flood defences in the last 50 years. The Dec 2013 tidal surge was probably only a shade less menacing in terms of actual sea level rise than was the 1953 event. Severe gales and storm force winds have also driven huge waves over sea defences in Wales and the West Country, resulting in yet more localised flooding.

All this chaos due to the Jet Stream, due to the run of extreme weather caused by that Jet Stream. But, given the exhaustive news coverage and the opportunity for a propaganda coup, it was inevitable that the proponents of CO2 induced global warming would figure out some way to link in the storms with ‘climate change’ and, right on cue, up stepped Julia Slingo to claim that ‘all the evidence’ pointed to a link between the UK floods and ‘climate change’.

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I came across this recent paper on Arxiv (also published in MNRAS) which nicely confirms some of the work we have been doing in PRP on energy exchange in the solar system via mean motion resonance. Team wassup refer to this well known phenomenon (Observed by Galileo and derived by Laplace) as ‘numerology’. Climate computer games modeler Chris Colose calls it “third rate crank science”.   :)
An earlier 2010 paper finds a fourth planet in the system as part of the resonant coupling.

Dynamical analysis of the Gliese-876 Laplace resonance

J. G. Marti, C. A. Giuppone, C. Beauge (Submitted on 28 May 2013)

The existence of multiple planetary systems involved in mean motion conmensurabilities has increased significantly since the Kepler mission. Although most correspond to 2-planet resonances, multiple resonances have also been found. The Laplace resonance is a particular case of a three-body resonance where the period ratio between consecutive pairs is n_1/n_2 near to n_2/n_3 near to 2/1. It is not clear how this triple resonance can act in order to stabilize (or not) the systems. The most reliable extrasolar system located in a Laplace resonance is GJ876 because it has two independent confirmations.

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Gerry Pease sends the following:

I believe this may turn out to be an important analysis, with significant consequences for Earth’s environment just five years from now.

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An analysis of heliospheric magnetic field flux based on sunspot number from 1749 to today and prediction for the coming solar minimum

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Pierre Gosselin over at the excellent Germany based ‘No Tricks Zone’ has a hot story on the sudden shutdown of journal ‘Pattern Recognition in Physics’ by Martin Rasmussen of Copernicus (The innovative science un-publishers). He’s found a screen capture of the PRP website frontpage before the spurious excuses for the closure were added to create a figleaf for this profoundly anti-scientific and illiberal action:

The Real Motivation Behind PRP Journal Shutdown Exposed: It Challenged IPCC Science!
wpid-PRP-Censured.jpgBy P Gosselin on 14. Februar 2014

The original motivation behind Copernicus Publishing director Martin Rasmussen’s decision to shut down the new journal Pattern Recognition Physics had nothing to do with the alleged “nepotistic” behavior among editors and peer-reviewers, but appears to have had all to do with politically incorrect questioning of IPCC orthodoxy. You can see how Rasmussen’s accusations appeared on PRP on the morning of January 17, 2014 at Bigcitylib.blogspot.com.

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UK Weather: Incoming!

Posted: February 12, 2014 by Rog Tallbloke in Natural Variation, Ocean dynamics, Tides, Travel, trees, waves, weather, wind

Batten down and hang on. 100mph gusts expected on coasts and exposed ground.

storm-warning

red-warning

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Around ten days ago I made an enquiry to Copernicus (the innovative science unpublishers) asking when they would be billing me for the order I made at the end of 2013. It turned out they had forgotten to do so, and they provided an invoice for a fresh order on Jan 27, 10 days after they axed the journal.

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